Crimson Fists Exploding d6s and Iron Hands Overwatch on 5+

Iron Hands get to Overwatch on 5+, and Crimson Fists only Overwatch on 6+, so Iron Hands get double the amount of hits. However, Crimson Fists hits count twice, so on the surface Iron Hands Overwatch 5+ is equal to Crimson Fists exploding d6s in regards to Overwatch (when using Bolters, which we certainly will be doing).

However in practice the numbers are not actually equal. For any one Overwatch roll, Iron Hands has a 33% chance of scoring a hit, while Crimson Fists have a 16.5%. So for any one roll, Iron Hands should do better. Crimson Fists can mitigate this with volume of dice. 

There is one way in which Crimson Fists numbers will always out perform Iron Hands:

• if you rolled 11 fives, and 10 6s, 
• Iron Hands have 21 hits
• Crimson Fists would have 20. 
• if you roll 10 fives and 11 sixes, 
• Iron Hands have 21 hits
• Crimson Fists have 22 
•  if you rolled 0 fives and 21 sixes
•  Iron Hands have 21 hits 
• Crimson Fists have 42
• if you rolled 21 fives and 0 sixes
• Iron Hands have 21 hits
• Crimson Fists have 0

 

The Crimson Fists actually have a wild top end that is enough to push the total average up. So on average, Crimson Fists numbers are ahead of Iron Hands by fractions. But on the whole Crimson Fists players will experience more variation. Crimson Fists will experience some wild highs on this, but Crimson Fists are more likely to experience no results than the Iron Hands are.