Why Space Marines NEED the Beta Bolter Rule

Sternguard VS Intercessors in a Post Vigilus Defiant World
 
I often compare Sternguard, Tacticals and Intercessors, to see the merits of their points VS offensive power, while having an easy correlation between wounds. Before Vigilus, offensively between Sternguard and Intercessors, Sternguard were in the lead.    +1 to wound strat is usually a modifier of 4/3, 3/2 or 2/1; 2/1 only VS 6+ to wound which isn't optimal anyway. The AP difference between AP-1 and AP-2 is a modifier of 3/2 VS marines, 6/5 VS 5+ armor. But with Rapid Fire 2, you are doing a straight doubling of prodution, which is an amazing boost in output.

Quick aside let's just compare the AP value as a modifier. AP's power depends on the victim's armor save, and of couse the AP. So the real formula can be considered as such: Count the number of faces that usually succeed for a unit's armor save, add the AP as a positive value, divide by that

I had long ago retired use of Tactical Marines, and painted all their right fists red, promoting them to veterans. There's still room for Sternguard because you can only use a Strat once per phase, so the +1 to wound still has value.

So when shooting at Chaos Marines (which hasn't come up for me in awhile, but that could change now), Sternguard with +1 to wound get a total modifier over a Tacticals of 4/3 (+1 to wound) * 2/1 (-2AP)  = 8/3;  while an Intercessor gets a total modifier over a Tactical of 2 (RF2) * 4/3 (AP) = 8/3.   So, basically for 1cp at the beginning more, Intercessors and Sternguard are inalign, and have double the wounds. and cost 1 point more.

Of the classic marines I think 16pt Sternguard are actually the closest to the real points equilibrium, with the 13 point marine being way off. So being similar to Sternguard is desirable.

Let's take a model that's universally regarded as good, the 4 point IG guardsmen.
  • Sternguard VS IG, equal when wounding marines
    • It takes 4.5 str4 AP-2 shots to kill 1 marine, 72 points
    • It takes 18 Str3 AP0 shots to kill 1 marine, 72 points
  •  Not equal at killing Guardsmen
    • It takes 2.25 Str4 AP-2 shots to kill 1 Guardsmen, 36 points
    • It takes 6 Str 3 AP0 shots to kill 1 Guardsmen, 24 points
  • When killing T4 PlagueBearers, 5+invuln
    • It takes 4.5 Str 4 shots (AP-2) to kill 1 Plague Bearer (T4)
      • 72 points of Sternguard
      • 58.5 points of Tactical Marine 
    • It takes 9 str Str3 AP0 shots to kill 1 Plague Bearer (T4)
      • 36 points of IG!!
    • Let's say you use a brave, bold Libby to cast Null Zone
      • 3 Sternguard shots to kill 1 Plaguebearer at T4 - 48 points (plus libby)
      • 3.6 tactical marine shots to kill 1 Plaguebearer at T4 - 46.8 points 
      • good lord, that's with a Libby casting Null Zone! 
  • Lets look at T5 Pox Walkers, 7+ save
    • It takes 4.5 shots to kill by any Str 4 weapon
      • tactical marine costs 58.5 points
    • It takes 6 shots to kill by any Str 3 weapon
      • Guardsmen cost 24 points 
    • (EDIT, added this) It takes 3 shots from an Infiltrator Space Marine and their "unmodified 6s to hit auto wound"
      • currently 3 Infiltrators are 66 points
The only time Space Marines get similar efficiency as Guardsmen is when killing Space Marines, using supposedly elite units like Sternguard. Otherwise Guardsmen are between better and vastly better in each category. 

ENTER BETA BOLTER RULE

OKAY. Before I start posting angry stuff on GW's facebook, lets use the Beta Bolter rule and assume I'm ok not moving my Marines around, and the opponents are reliably at 18".
  • Killing t4 3+, Sternguard VS IG: 36 points to 72. Winner, Sternguard
  • Killing t3 5+, Sternguard VS IG: 18 points to 24 points, Sternguard
  • T4 5++ Plaguebeaers, Sternguard VS Tactical VS IG: 36 point, 29.25, 36 points. Winner, Tactical Marine
  • T5 7+, Tactical Marine VS IG: 29.25 points to 24 points, winner Guardsmen 
    • Rapid Firing Infiltrators would cost 33 points, still not great but a step forward
This imposes some big restrictions on Marines, else they lose the chance to Rapid Fire and must use the vastly less efficient results from above. They can't have moved in the movement phase is the big one.

The marines also must be long range. If the are in close range the problem is that the Guard's efficiency also doubles, destroying the Marine's gains.

So what does this say about how to play Marines?
  • Marines are a long range army outside of Smash Captains, they need to keep the enemy at range.
    • Marines are a gun line army
    • Marines needs to stack buffs. The way to play shooty marines is to have them in fairly tight blobs with Captains, Lieutenants, Banners, and every other buff giver close by. Marines need every buff they can get because they are so inefficient. Stacked buffs confer more power as opposed to spreading buffs around.
    • Marines need to exploit every movement restriction mechanic they have. Thunderfire Cannons and the new Obscuration psychic power from Shadowspear really help Marines stay at range.
  • Marine Characters are still great in CC. These models may need to be your counter charge unit while you invest points in more shooting.  

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