How Many Shots Does It Take To Kill X?

Do I have a realistic chance of wounding such and such, or should this unit look elsewhere? What if I use all the buffs I have access to? Here's how to go about calculating that. Imagine 30 Orks Boyz with a 6+ FNP.

30 Orks with a 6+ FNP means you'd usually need 35 wounds getting through to wipe the unit out.

Use my handy guide to buffs to find out the multiplier value of the buff you have access to, and instead of multiplying it, we're going to divide the total unsaved wounds we need by the buff multiplier.  Buff Guide here: https://40kgamejournal.blogspot.com/2019/03/ranking-buffs.html

Let's say your attacking unit is a 10 man squad of Veteran Intercessors, has Pedro Kantor's reroll buff, a Lieutenant and the option to use Bolter Drill and Rapid Fire 2, with +1 to Hit from No Matter the Odds (the Crimson Fists Chapter Tactic)

Dividing something by a fraction is as easy as multiplying the number by the fraction's inverse. Needing 35 wounds, without using any Stratagems we're looking at:

35 wounds * (6/8) [Kantor] * (6/7) [Lieutenant] * (4/5) [+1 to Hit] * (3/2) [odds to hit] * [2] odds to wound * 1 [odds to fail armor save] = needing 54 shots to kill the whole unit of Orks.

If we use Bolter Drill, instead of needing 54 shots from a unit, we'd need 54 * 6/8 = 40.5 shots.

If we use Rapid Fire 2, that gets us to 40 shots. So there you have it.

Without any buffs or Stratagems, if we needed to put out 35 wounds, the math would read:
35 wounds * 3/2 [odds to hit] * 2 [odds to wound] * 1 [odds of failed armor save] = 105 shots, or the fire power of ~5 10 man units of Intercessors with Rapid Fire range.

This leads to another observation: buff stratagems and aura buffs have a cascading effect. They are much better when stacked on each other rather than distributed to different units. So as a general tactic, you want to use Bolter Drill on a unit that is also using Rapid Fire 2, rather than using Bolter Drill on Unit A, Rapid Fire 2 on Unit B and so on. Furthermore these Stratagems are much better when combined with Character Buffs, making the sequence of multiplication much stronger.


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